* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 57 52 49 43 38 34 32 32 31 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 62 57 52 49 43 38 34 32 32 31 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 62 56 51 47 40 35 30 27 26 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 5 3 9 11 11 20 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 6 7 13 10 4 0 -2 0 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 111 108 117 127 101 91 54 107 148 172 199 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.0 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 124 122 124 123 115 105 110 114 118 120 119 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 36 35 33 31 27 25 23 23 20 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 18 15 13 11 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 61 58 65 62 55 47 45 41 44 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -34 -40 -24 -12 -32 -14 6 -4 1 -7 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 2 0 4 1 8 2 7 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1522 1622 1727 1833 1944 2177 1956 1649 1358 1036 690 405 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.0 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.2 127.6 129.0 130.4 133.2 136.3 139.2 142.0 145.1 148.4 151.2 153.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 14 16 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -21. -27. -32. -36. -38. -38. -39. -38. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.4 124.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 691.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##