* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 08/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 50 62 74 97 116 127 131 128 117 100 82 62 47 49 48 V (KT) LAND 35 42 50 62 74 97 116 127 131 128 117 100 82 62 47 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 41 47 56 66 96 132 154 154 132 99 71 47 29 19 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 7 7 7 3 5 3 3 6 6 7 5 11 15 22 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -6 -7 -5 -6 -3 0 2 2 3 4 0 -4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 21 24 55 45 15 45 28 26 59 100 129 176 191 144 146 195 203 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.8 30.6 30.2 29.8 27.8 25.3 23.1 21.2 19.7 17.8 17.9 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 165 167 165 164 172 168 163 143 117 95 75 62 61 59 58 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -49.8 -49.1 -48.4 -48.3 -47.8 -48.1 -49.0 -50.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 86 87 86 83 82 77 72 62 54 47 39 31 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 28 31 36 43 47 49 50 46 40 30 17 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 61 69 59 84 91 122 120 118 116 124 88 78 21 38 29 200 MB DIV 89 114 123 183 172 174 192 167 137 114 56 29 13 19 36 44 22 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -4 -7 -3 -7 -3 1 4 10 7 6 10 1 17 14 LAND (KM) 569 578 600 598 584 556 588 601 522 452 289 130 63 115 128 162 234 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 11 13 15 15 13 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 31 34 40 33 23 33 27 29 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 81.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 28. 29. 29. 27. 24. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 40. 42. 35. 25. 11. -3. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -8. -13. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 27. 39. 62. 81. 92. 96. 93. 82. 65. 47. 27. 12. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 100.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 08/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 16.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 9.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -19.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.93 -14.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.88 10.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 71% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 89% is 15.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 77% is 16.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 56.5% 44.1% 34.7% 20.5% 71.3% 88.9% 77.4% Logistic: 1.9% 20.8% 7.5% 3.8% 2.4% 22.4% 85.4% 38.5% Bayesian: 8.3% 57.9% 59.7% 22.0% 8.5% 1.4% 7.4% 72.0% Consensus: 8.1% 45.1% 37.1% 20.1% 10.5% 31.7% 60.6% 62.6% DTOPS: 12.0% 61.0% 55.0% 30.0% 12.0% 80.0% 82.0% 89.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 08/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##