* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 42 38 35 32 29 26 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 47 42 38 35 32 29 26 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 46 40 36 32 28 25 23 22 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 12 9 6 6 8 8 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 4 7 9 11 4 3 -2 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 103 110 123 123 100 43 93 136 165 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.4 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 128 129 127 118 110 111 116 120 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 34 33 30 28 24 23 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 14 12 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 59 59 65 64 57 53 38 37 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -38 -25 -9 -13 -32 -16 11 -4 0 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 3 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1642 1754 1866 1974 2086 2178 1873 1553 1260 940 626 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.6 128.9 130.3 131.6 134.3 137.2 140.2 143.0 146.1 149.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -28. -28. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.2 126.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 548.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##