* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 35 38 39 40 42 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 35 35 38 39 40 42 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 35 35 34 34 36 38 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 4 9 13 16 12 11 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 4 0 -5 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 225 237 276 301 324 328 319 294 286 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.2 27.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 134 130 134 138 141 147 144 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 7 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 58 55 51 49 48 49 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -2 -4 -7 -9 -13 -6 -9 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 19 12 11 -1 -2 -20 -28 0 0 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 888 829 785 770 776 877 1056 1277 1431 1629 1857 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.3 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.9 153.0 154.2 155.4 156.6 159.2 161.9 164.6 167.2 169.7 172.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 5 3 11 11 21 42 38 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 24. 29. 33. 37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.8 151.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.4% 3.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##