* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 50 60 71 93 109 120 119 107 90 67 44 32 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 41 50 60 71 93 109 120 119 107 90 59 45 32 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 48 57 80 111 130 122 94 63 40 35 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 4 1 7 6 5 4 8 9 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -4 -3 -6 -5 -1 4 9 4 5 1 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 21 323 285 238 44 8 116 117 154 176 193 198 208 215 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.1 27.3 25.8 22.5 23.3 20.3 19.1 15.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 169 167 168 168 156 138 123 89 97 65 60 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -49.7 -49.6 -49.0 -48.3 -48.1 -47.5 -47.3 -48.4 -49.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 85 85 85 84 82 80 76 72 59 58 50 43 38 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 33 36 42 46 51 52 47 40 27 13 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 69 59 64 75 87 112 113 118 107 124 87 65 23 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 133 153 161 133 162 192 151 151 144 70 51 16 37 13 34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -7 -7 -6 -6 2 0 2 17 10 -5 18 19 20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 488 506 509 504 504 580 547 424 368 244 30 -28 14 -107 -221 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.7 18.2 20.2 22.0 24.7 28.1 31.0 33.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.1 104.3 105.4 106.5 107.5 109.7 111.5 112.9 114.0 114.6 115.0 115.9 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 15 16 14 12 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 50 41 39 30 33 27 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 22. 21. 20. 16. 13. 19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 32. 36. 29. 18. 2. -15. -23. -22. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. -16. -16. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 25. 36. 58. 74. 85. 84. 72. 55. 32. 9. -3. 1. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.4 103.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 23.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.82 15.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -10.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -19.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.94 15.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 6.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 91% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 99% is 16.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 75% is 16.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 77.9% 65.8% 47.9% 41.0% 91.4% 99.2% 75.1% Logistic: 10.2% 68.2% 46.6% 32.6% 23.7% 63.5% 80.8% 7.8% Bayesian: 3.0% 35.3% 38.6% 13.6% 3.2% 36.4% 20.3% 14.0% Consensus: 9.8% 60.4% 50.3% 31.4% 22.6% 63.8% 66.8% 32.3% DTOPS: 18.0% 60.0% 42.0% 30.0% 15.0% 67.0% 72.0% 61.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##