* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 40 45 51 59 66 69 74 77 80 83 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 40 45 51 59 66 69 74 77 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 29 33 37 42 47 52 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 19 17 11 11 3 7 10 7 1 10 11 12 10 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 1 4 3 5 1 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 60 49 34 34 19 5 57 234 201 248 359 344 16 9 10 348 326 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 139 141 135 133 134 137 139 142 138 140 146 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 57 57 56 51 48 46 44 44 45 42 42 46 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 87 71 53 49 23 -5 -22 -13 -6 6 3 2 8 7 -2 -4 200 MB DIV 54 65 56 61 85 81 29 -26 -41 -38 -51 -27 -14 1 33 -7 -21 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -9 -7 -6 -7 -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1603 1598 1604 1626 1588 1483 1415 1364 1329 1265 1233 1234 1270 1234 1167 1103 1055 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.9 37.7 38.4 39.2 40.9 42.4 43.7 44.5 45.3 46.0 46.7 47.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 9 7 6 4 4 3 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 19 16 15 26 26 24 27 30 35 39 33 41 52 44 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 43. 50. 55. 59. 60. 60. 62. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 32. 39. 46. 49. 54. 57. 60. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 36.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.6% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 2.9% 2.8% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 0.9% 4.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 40 45 51 59 66 69 74 77 80 83 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 27 33 39 44 50 58 65 68 73 76 79 82 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 29 35 40 46 54 61 64 69 72 75 78 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT