* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 62 73 85 104 115 119 115 101 79 59 36 35 31 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 52 62 73 85 104 115 119 115 101 79 59 37 31 31 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 51 59 68 79 104 127 133 113 83 55 33 22 25 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 4 4 5 9 6 5 5 4 11 16 18 17 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 12 5 1 3 4 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 334 308 119 101 76 67 52 204 199 153 198 182 208 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 28.9 26.2 24.8 21.5 20.3 18.6 16.8 20.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 163 164 165 167 154 127 113 79 67 61 58 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -49.6 -49.5 -48.5 -48.5 -48.1 -48.1 -47.8 -48.9 -50.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 85 85 86 84 84 82 77 71 60 51 49 47 37 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 33 36 39 43 46 49 49 43 34 25 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 47 49 62 67 90 109 103 109 114 124 79 105 35 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 128 137 141 174 214 181 165 135 143 47 33 27 65 1 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -5 -6 -3 -7 1 2 5 0 3 2 1 0 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 588 573 578 592 615 667 576 470 318 195 128 74 -51 -99 4 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.7 18.2 20.3 22.7 25.4 28.6 31.8 34.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.6 106.7 107.8 108.9 110.7 112.3 113.6 114.2 114.9 116.1 117.6 119.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 15 17 17 10 3 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 36 32 24 24 28 28 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 16. 13. 10. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 24. 26. 18. 5. -6. -23. -21. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. -16. -16. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 17. 28. 40. 59. 70. 74. 70. 56. 34. 14. -9. -10. -14. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 104.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 26.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 14.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.85 20.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -24.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.8 -33.0 to 159.5 1.00 20.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 13.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 12.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 7.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 92% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 87% is 14.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 15.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 69% is 14.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.5% 99.1% 91.8% 86.9% 63.2% 100.0% 100.0% 68.9% Logistic: 36.7% 83.3% 68.8% 61.3% 51.1% 79.6% 80.4% 6.8% Bayesian: 39.7% 78.1% 67.7% 51.5% 27.2% 75.8% 56.8% 5.7% Consensus: 39.6% 86.8% 76.1% 66.6% 47.1% 85.1% 79.1% 27.1% DTOPS: 34.0% 79.0% 78.0% 71.0% 48.0% 69.0% 73.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##