* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 52 58 62 66 68 64 57 52 49 48 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 52 58 62 66 68 64 57 52 49 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 51 55 58 56 51 45 41 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 4 3 3 3 6 4 13 19 32 35 33 37 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 3 1 6 4 2 2 4 2 6 0 1 -1 -4 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 42 344 353 14 280 310 97 156 254 253 245 239 257 267 290 284 288 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 144 136 129 127 126 121 123 123 121 123 125 127 128 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 70 67 63 59 55 56 56 54 53 52 49 49 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 14 12 10 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 59 58 52 47 38 50 43 20 17 62 53 23 -11 -29 -41 -68 -67 200 MB DIV 86 80 81 75 89 69 42 22 8 30 35 -12 -19 -4 2 13 -5 700-850 TADV -14 -11 -14 -10 -10 -7 -2 0 5 13 14 22 16 21 7 12 5 LAND (KM) 929 1040 1157 1253 1340 1481 1548 1578 1657 1765 1906 2075 2247 2409 2309 2227 2202 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.1 18.0 19.6 21.4 23.3 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.1 27.2 28.3 29.2 30.0 31.3 31.9 32.1 32.7 33.9 35.4 37.0 38.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 5 4 4 7 11 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 30 31 19 9 7 9 7 13 12 4 11 6 7 10 31 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 42. 43. 43. 42. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 3. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 27. 33. 37. 41. 43. 39. 32. 27. 24. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 26.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 17.1% 11.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 17.9% 9.5% 3.5% 1.0% 4.3% 4.4% 3.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 3.8% 2.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 11.0% 0.9% Consensus: 2.9% 12.9% 7.6% 3.5% 0.4% 1.8% 9.5% 1.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 44 52 58 62 66 68 64 57 52 49 48 49 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 40 48 54 58 62 64 60 53 48 45 44 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 34 42 48 52 56 58 54 47 42 39 38 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 38 42 46 48 44 37 32 29 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT