* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 34 42 47 55 61 70 74 78 81 82 84 85 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 34 42 47 55 61 70 74 78 81 82 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 31 34 38 43 48 53 57 62 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 10 11 9 5 8 10 2 3 9 10 10 9 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 3 3 7 4 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 52 33 32 13 8 16 228 205 213 259 323 4 14 16 2 328 311 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 139 139 139 134 134 137 138 141 140 138 144 146 145 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 57 57 53 50 46 46 44 46 43 43 42 47 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 10 12 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 85 71 52 48 39 0 -14 -24 -11 -8 5 -9 0 0 2 -12 -5 200 MB DIV 63 55 62 82 79 56 9 -31 -42 -34 -22 -20 -23 32 0 -15 -13 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -8 -7 -6 -7 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1594 1602 1614 1572 1510 1438 1373 1334 1270 1223 1203 1222 1235 1167 1106 1052 975 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.2 13.1 13.6 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 37.8 38.5 39.3 40.2 41.8 43.2 44.3 45.1 45.9 46.6 47.4 48.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 4 4 3 5 6 7 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 15 14 20 29 24 26 29 33 39 39 37 54 48 38 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 43. 50. 54. 58. 60. 60. 61. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 27. 35. 41. 50. 54. 58. 61. 62. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 37.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 23.0% 13.4% 6.3% 3.2% 7.6% 7.2% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 2.3% Consensus: 1.9% 9.3% 5.0% 2.1% 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 25 28 34 42 47 55 61 70 74 78 81 82 84 85 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 31 39 44 52 58 67 71 75 78 79 81 82 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 35 40 48 54 63 67 71 74 75 77 78 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT