* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 38 40 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 38 40 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 36 35 36 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 5 8 14 14 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 0 -3 -6 -8 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 256 278 302 310 321 325 323 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.5 28.2 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 130 129 132 137 140 147 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 54 54 52 50 49 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 -2 -7 -10 -14 -10 -13 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 10 -1 0 0 -8 -9 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 781 750 738 761 809 995 1215 1369 1572 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.9 155.0 156.2 157.5 158.8 161.5 164.1 166.6 169.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 6 10 10 17 45 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 17. 23. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.1 153.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.50 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.3% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##