* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 76 88 99 117 125 123 109 91 67 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 65 76 88 99 117 125 123 109 91 60 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 66 77 89 104 129 142 127 97 67 41 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 3 5 4 2 2 3 7 9 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -5 -3 10 8 5 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 316 85 86 37 51 95 85 190 176 184 167 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.1 27.5 26.3 22.9 23.4 19.7 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 167 167 166 156 140 128 93 99 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -49.9 -49.7 -48.9 -48.8 -48.8 -48.5 -48.1 -48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 81 81 81 78 75 61 55 48 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 35 38 40 44 48 49 44 37 25 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 59 73 74 83 107 99 108 108 111 83 79 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 128 148 169 217 181 174 135 99 57 11 29 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -4 -6 -7 -1 5 6 12 7 -9 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 512 528 535 565 615 557 439 339 220 42 -21 -56 -226 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 18.2 20.1 22.1 24.4 27.3 30.6 33.6 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.9 108.0 109.1 110.1 111.8 113.0 113.7 114.3 115.0 115.8 117.0 118.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 13 16 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 35 26 29 31 27 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 17. 7. -9. -21. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 33. 44. 62. 70. 68. 54. 36. 12. -9. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 105.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 23.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.88 20.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -23.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 168.6 -33.0 to 159.5 1.00 20.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 18.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 10.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 75% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 96% is 22.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 75.0% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 95.5% 100.0% 99.9% 59.3% Logistic: 36.7% 75.2% 64.1% 57.9% 39.0% 75.6% 81.9% 2.0% Bayesian: 33.0% 68.4% 49.4% 44.0% 15.0% 52.7% 7.7% 5.2% Consensus: 48.2% 81.2% 70.8% 66.7% 49.8% 76.1% 63.2% 22.1% DTOPS: 74.0% 88.0% 92.0% 89.0% 78.0% 89.0% 75.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##