* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 48 54 60 65 66 63 58 55 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 48 54 60 65 66 63 58 55 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 40 45 50 53 51 47 44 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 3 2 6 2 3 5 8 17 26 32 29 38 29 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 6 4 1 1 5 3 2 2 1 4 -3 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 13 22 13 272 298 174 183 193 235 237 234 249 276 286 292 284 295 SST (C) 29.1 28.5 27.9 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 144 135 126 124 125 122 120 122 123 125 123 126 127 130 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 69 68 66 65 59 56 54 50 46 47 48 48 53 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 13 13 11 8 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 40 36 26 34 58 49 33 59 75 41 22 -3 -15 -32 -43 -62 200 MB DIV 62 46 41 70 65 68 29 33 8 58 -9 -18 -14 0 5 9 -3 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -6 -6 -8 -2 1 0 15 12 20 16 13 10 8 15 7 LAND (KM) 1053 1168 1264 1350 1436 1567 1645 1696 1814 1932 2112 2292 2288 2138 2030 1998 1958 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.6 20.4 22.2 23.7 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.3 28.4 29.3 30.1 30.9 32.1 32.8 33.2 34.2 35.6 37.4 39.1 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 5 4 6 10 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 19 8 7 11 14 13 9 6 18 8 8 9 17 18 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 39. 41. 42. 42. 42. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. 2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 23. 29. 35. 40. 41. 38. 33. 30. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 27.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 16.9% 11.4% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 20.4% 11.3% 4.9% 2.0% 8.7% 5.1% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% Consensus: 2.8% 13.4% 7.8% 4.0% 0.7% 3.1% 6.5% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/17/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 40 48 54 60 65 66 63 58 55 52 54 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 45 51 57 62 63 60 55 52 49 51 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 40 46 52 57 58 55 50 47 44 46 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 31 37 43 48 49 46 41 38 35 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT