* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 32 37 42 46 52 56 58 60 61 65 68 72 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 32 37 42 46 52 56 58 60 61 65 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 28 30 32 34 37 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 10 14 10 15 12 14 9 13 18 15 10 10 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 2 3 0 4 3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 18 14 358 359 345 300 289 270 289 303 331 358 1 29 27 54 48 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.8 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 140 141 139 133 138 134 134 135 137 137 142 148 150 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 55 54 50 48 46 44 45 47 48 49 51 50 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 60 55 39 31 -9 -30 -28 -34 -10 -12 -20 -28 -25 -40 -50 -63 200 MB DIV 49 54 77 74 73 21 -5 -30 -25 -38 -32 -3 -17 11 -14 0 -13 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -7 -8 -8 -2 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1604 1557 1492 1434 1384 1358 1314 1271 1202 1162 1122 1042 960 873 745 602 443 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.1 14.2 14.9 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.8 15.3 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.4 40.4 41.4 42.5 44.2 45.7 46.7 47.6 48.2 49.1 50.0 50.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 9 7 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 19 26 24 24 36 32 35 37 38 42 52 59 46 38 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 24. 33. 41. 48. 53. 57. 58. 59. 61. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 26. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 45. 48. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 38.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.2% 2.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/17/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 32 37 42 46 52 56 58 60 61 65 68 72 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 30 35 40 44 50 54 56 58 59 63 66 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 25 30 35 39 45 49 51 53 54 58 61 65 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT