* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 88 101 113 123 137 141 130 109 84 58 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 88 101 113 123 137 141 130 109 84 50 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 90 105 119 131 149 144 116 84 52 35 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 1 3 3 7 4 0 7 8 15 22 29 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 2 11 4 1 5 5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 29 347 20 28 40 325 167 148 170 167 170 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.2 28.7 26.3 24.0 21.8 19.4 14.2 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 163 166 168 152 128 105 83 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -49.5 -49.5 -48.6 -49.0 -48.6 -48.4 -48.3 -48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 80 81 77 74 65 60 56 54 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 38 39 42 47 51 49 42 33 22 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 67 75 89 105 105 97 115 105 119 53 89 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 148 195 158 152 160 84 91 6 32 59 93 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -7 -10 -6 4 7 5 1 4 -17 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 517 534 582 618 596 494 431 272 94 10 -80 -318 -365 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.7 19.3 21.2 23.5 26.5 30.0 33.9 37.6 41.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.4 109.5 110.4 111.3 112.8 113.9 114.4 115.0 115.9 117.0 118.3 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 13 17 19 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 25 29 28 26 27 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -13. -20. -19. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 22. 15. 2. -13. -30. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 26. 38. 48. 62. 66. 55. 34. 9. -17. -35. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.2 107.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 17.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 24.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.88 21.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -23.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 154.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.98 20.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 15.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 12.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 98% is 15.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 7.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 21.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 98.3% 100.0% 98.5% 97.6% 88.9% 100.0% 68.2% 15.8% Logistic: 63.5% 74.7% 64.0% 59.1% 39.6% 56.3% 36.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 65.6% 51.2% 57.2% 47.1% 24.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 75.8% 75.3% 73.3% 67.9% 51.2% 53.5% 35.0% 5.3% DTOPS: 92.0% 95.0% 98.0% 96.0% 92.0% 90.0% 17.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##