* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 51 54 54 51 47 45 42 41 40 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 51 54 54 51 47 45 42 41 40 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 41 41 39 37 35 33 31 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 7 4 7 8 11 19 24 27 28 32 39 35 30 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 1 3 -1 5 5 0 1 -2 7 6 2 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 45 27 277 287 246 182 179 204 228 234 270 297 272 290 288 290 279 SST (C) 28.6 27.9 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 136 125 125 127 122 120 121 124 123 123 125 126 127 129 136 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 68 68 68 59 58 54 52 49 48 48 51 55 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 28 10 19 27 51 44 34 67 54 31 3 -4 -28 -46 -47 -51 200 MB DIV 40 20 25 24 47 61 30 19 0 1 27 3 -8 -8 30 54 10 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 0 2 13 15 10 9 11 4 10 16 19 LAND (KM) 1157 1264 1372 1459 1546 1668 1759 1845 1945 2064 2215 2354 2224 2119 2066 2137 2075 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.0 19.4 20.9 22.4 23.4 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.0 33.8 34.5 35.6 36.9 38.4 39.9 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 19 6 7 10 15 15 10 9 14 13 12 8 9 15 26 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 39. 41. 41. 40. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 26. 29. 29. 26. 22. 20. 17. 16. 15. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 28.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 16.0% 10.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 10.9% 5.7% 1.5% 0.5% 3.2% 2.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 9.9% 5.8% 2.9% 0.2% 1.2% 5.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/17/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 51 54 54 51 47 45 42 41 40 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 44 48 51 51 48 44 42 39 38 37 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 39 43 46 46 43 39 37 34 33 32 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 35 38 38 35 31 29 26 25 24 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT