* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 34 38 41 44 45 47 51 55 60 65 69 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 34 38 41 44 45 47 51 55 60 65 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 22 25 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 14 11 15 17 21 21 21 27 21 11 9 10 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 4 1 2 6 1 -2 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 10 356 348 343 332 290 280 268 291 298 301 314 299 308 333 349 14 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 138 136 138 135 137 140 144 150 148 144 144 143 142 144 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 54 54 52 48 46 44 47 47 52 49 51 46 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 61 50 39 9 -17 -42 -47 -56 -39 -54 -52 -48 -27 -37 -35 -36 200 MB DIV 63 84 77 79 71 0 -27 -18 14 31 26 -8 15 -20 -12 -9 -5 700-850 TADV -14 -13 -11 -7 0 -5 -3 1 -1 0 0 2 1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1560 1488 1424 1370 1336 1268 1231 1150 1001 868 805 819 837 853 852 864 829 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.6 15.2 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 40.6 41.7 42.9 44.0 46.0 47.6 48.9 50.3 51.6 52.5 52.8 53.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 10 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 21 26 23 23 33 32 37 43 58 59 43 34 37 43 43 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 24. 33. 41. 48. 52. 56. 57. 57. 58. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -7. -14. -21. -25. -26. -24. -22. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. 31. 35. 40. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 39.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 9.4% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 3.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/17/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 26 30 34 38 41 44 45 47 51 55 60 65 69 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 24 28 32 36 39 42 43 45 49 53 58 63 67 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 27 31 34 37 38 40 44 48 53 58 62 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT