* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 105 119 129 139 147 141 120 93 66 36 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 105 119 129 139 147 141 120 93 60 39 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 106 120 131 140 145 128 99 68 42 32 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 5 3 4 3 7 11 6 20 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 0 8 5 4 4 6 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 305 44 29 345 87 170 175 178 167 148 177 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.7 30.0 30.2 29.5 27.5 25.9 22.1 22.3 19.2 13.7 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 162 166 168 160 140 124 85 88 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -48.9 -48.7 -48.9 -48.6 -48.4 -48.3 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 81 82 81 76 71 60 55 51 53 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 41 42 46 48 49 44 36 26 13 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 69 79 103 109 97 108 118 118 92 92 55 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 140 184 178 165 163 117 114 36 26 38 50 62 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -8 -3 1 4 4 7 9 -1 -13 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 537 577 626 609 554 453 357 220 41 -30 -166 -373 -390 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.3 20.2 22.2 25.0 28.1 31.5 35.2 39.0 42.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.4 110.3 111.2 112.0 113.3 114.1 114.7 115.3 116.2 117.4 118.5 119.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 15 16 18 19 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 28 28 26 27 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -10. -19. -28. -37. -33. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 11. 1. -13. -30. -36. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 15. 29. 39. 49. 57. 51. 30. 3. -24. -54. -56. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.8 108.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.34 12.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 26.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.84 20.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -22.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 166.0 -33.0 to 159.5 1.00 21.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 11.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 15.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 97% is 15.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 96% is 7.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 95% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 94% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 17.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 97.2% 96.1% 94.8% 93.8% 73.3% 74.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 79.8% 79.4% 67.9% 66.7% 39.0% 55.5% 12.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 54.0% 60.1% 33.0% 38.3% 13.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 77.0% 78.5% 65.2% 66.3% 41.8% 43.4% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##