* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 40 45 47 46 44 42 40 37 38 40 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 40 45 47 46 44 42 40 37 38 40 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 35 34 33 31 30 29 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 6 11 8 11 14 22 28 27 27 36 32 32 27 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 1 1 0 6 3 0 -2 3 4 0 2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 35 210 216 151 155 208 205 213 222 247 265 273 280 278 272 281 242 SST (C) 27.6 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 126 125 124 120 119 124 124 123 123 127 128 130 130 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 68 66 61 57 56 55 52 52 50 49 51 56 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 13 10 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 28 14 18 26 35 52 42 58 72 59 46 25 12 -5 -10 -25 -27 200 MB DIV 26 36 25 46 52 33 13 -7 14 -7 4 1 -10 -16 24 40 22 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 2 1 0 9 11 15 5 7 5 2 5 9 10 LAND (KM) 1275 1384 1482 1570 1646 1756 1837 1942 2035 2179 2318 2208 2084 1951 1858 1824 1898 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.4 19.6 20.8 21.9 22.5 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.4 31.3 32.1 32.8 33.8 34.5 35.4 36.5 38.0 39.4 41.0 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 7 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 5 8 11 14 16 13 12 13 17 16 19 12 16 16 31 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 20. 22. 21. 19. 17. 15. 12. 13. 15. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 29.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 15.4% 10.6% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.2% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 2.4% 1.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 7.5% 4.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.9% 4.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/18/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 37 40 45 47 46 44 42 40 37 38 40 46 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 38 43 45 44 42 40 38 35 36 38 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 34 39 41 40 38 36 34 31 32 34 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 26 31 33 32 30 28 26 23 24 26 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT