* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 33 35 37 39 40 39 35 33 30 29 31 34 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 33 35 37 39 40 39 35 33 30 29 31 34 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 17 17 18 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 12 11 19 20 24 30 32 32 30 27 31 23 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 1 1 5 4 0 -6 -1 0 1 0 -4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 5 357 349 345 312 299 285 288 282 282 282 281 273 292 283 272 248 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 136 136 138 137 137 143 151 149 152 152 152 150 146 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 51 50 49 46 45 47 48 53 54 55 54 52 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 850 MB ENV VOR 61 54 34 9 0 -23 -31 -49 -35 -49 -54 -54 -41 -32 -17 -10 0 200 MB DIV 72 72 56 44 14 -20 -20 18 47 49 49 4 0 -1 4 6 -25 700-850 TADV -12 -12 -9 -6 -3 -4 0 3 -2 3 0 4 0 0 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1477 1407 1357 1320 1284 1216 1108 928 766 650 639 650 618 593 603 600 576 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.4 15.3 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.0 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 42.1 43.3 44.5 45.5 47.7 49.4 51.1 52.7 54.2 55.1 55.6 56.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 23 25 31 33 40 54 59 38 44 58 60 55 51 53 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 31. 38. 45. 49. 52. 53. 52. 52. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -12. -21. -30. -35. -38. -40. -40. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 10. 8. 5. 4. 6. 9. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 40.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 14.5% 9.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 14.4% 8.6% 2.8% 0.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 2.6% 10.6% 6.7% 2.9% 0.3% 1.2% 4.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/18/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 33 35 37 39 40 39 35 33 30 29 31 34 39 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 31 33 35 36 35 31 29 26 25 27 30 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 28 30 31 30 26 24 21 20 22 25 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 22 23 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT