* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 117 126 133 136 133 120 100 72 43 25 34 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 117 126 133 136 133 120 100 72 44 32 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 117 125 130 132 128 107 78 51 32 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 3 5 5 4 9 11 10 14 22 20 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -2 2 2 9 3 1 2 3 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 306 299 284 152 96 168 184 154 167 185 200 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.2 28.9 26.5 23.8 21.5 20.1 14.2 12.0 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 165 168 167 154 130 103 80 65 64 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -49.7 -49.7 -48.6 -49.2 -48.8 -48.7 -48.0 -47.6 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 1 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 81 81 78 75 65 59 54 52 55 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 40 42 44 45 46 44 39 30 18 5 2 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 94 110 102 91 107 102 116 75 97 37 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 174 167 161 149 126 94 90 -12 47 42 69 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -3 1 5 4 4 -3 -8 -20 7 9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 582 626 609 540 489 390 257 77 10 -29 -228 -335 -301 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.3 21.4 23.6 26.7 30.4 33.8 37.0 40.8 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.5 111.4 112.1 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.0 116.1 117.7 119.2 120.1 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 11 14 17 18 18 18 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 27 25 28 27 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -11. -22. -34. -47. -50. -42. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 2. -11. -26. -43. -45. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 11. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 21. 28. 31. 28. 15. -5. -33. -62. -80. -71. -56. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.4 109.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.22 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 15.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 11.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -12.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 155.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.98 13.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 70.4% 65.9% 51.7% 47.3% 38.5% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 62.4% 61.7% 44.6% 44.8% 21.6% 15.6% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 28.9% 7.1% 3.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.9% 44.9% 33.3% 31.7% 20.1% 13.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 68.0% 59.0% 38.0% 21.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##