* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 27 23 22 21 21 24 27 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 27 23 22 21 21 24 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 27 26 24 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 15 13 18 23 27 31 29 38 39 35 37 29 29 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 3 2 -2 -3 -1 2 -5 0 -3 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 2 356 348 316 306 298 281 278 267 262 270 272 281 280 287 280 294 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 136 138 139 138 143 149 147 150 150 149 148 146 148 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 49 49 47 47 43 46 46 53 56 56 55 52 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 37 15 2 -12 -24 -32 -49 -28 -45 -35 -40 -33 -21 -9 -13 -1 200 MB DIV 53 46 27 1 -5 -8 -9 19 65 79 14 25 18 10 17 8 0 700-850 TADV -12 -14 -8 -6 -7 -4 1 -2 0 4 4 4 3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1352 1290 1261 1222 1203 1126 977 856 764 776 722 701 678 705 732 748 748 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.9 45.1 46.3 47.4 49.3 50.9 52.3 53.6 54.4 55.1 55.6 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 26 32 35 41 51 48 36 43 54 56 50 47 51 56 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 30. 37. 43. 46. 49. 49. 48. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -10. -18. -29. -40. -45. -49. -51. -50. -50. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 2. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 42.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 13.5% 9.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 13.6% 7.8% 2.5% 1.0% 4.3% 3.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 6.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 3.3% 11.0% 6.3% 2.7% 0.4% 1.6% 4.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/18/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 27 23 22 21 21 24 27 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 24 20 19 18 18 21 24 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT