* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 130 135 137 134 124 104 81 60 33 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 130 135 137 134 124 104 81 51 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 129 133 133 131 116 90 62 40 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 3 6 8 11 13 19 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 0 4 3 3 3 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 317 246 133 132 132 204 192 172 156 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 29.7 27.8 26.0 21.4 21.2 18.7 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 167 169 163 143 126 78 77 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -49.6 -50.1 -49.4 -49.2 -49.2 -48.8 -48.9 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 80 78 74 65 61 57 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 44 44 44 47 41 34 27 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 86 98 98 92 100 104 111 89 99 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 164 160 140 120 71 82 40 19 73 89 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -2 2 6 5 4 14 7 11 -15 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 634 615 560 481 424 321 176 75 -43 -276 -458 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.2 20.2 22.4 25.3 28.7 32.3 36.4 41.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.2 111.9 112.4 112.9 113.8 114.4 115.3 116.5 117.6 118.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 16 18 20 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 28 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -20. -35. -50. -63. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 0. -4. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 1. -7. -17. -38. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 15. 17. 14. 4. -16. -39. -60. -87. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 16.8 110.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.9% 32.6% 20.5% 18.7% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.7% 17.2% 7.6% 6.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 23.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 34.2% 16.8% 9.4% 8.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##