* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 43 48 49 50 49 49 46 43 44 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 43 48 49 50 49 49 46 43 44 49 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 34 35 35 35 35 34 32 31 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 2 2 8 9 18 19 25 15 36 38 33 28 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 6 5 7 1 -1 0 3 11 0 2 1 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 268 285 243 203 209 165 205 220 252 282 271 280 294 295 292 293 313 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 124 123 121 122 124 128 124 124 127 128 128 128 133 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 62 59 55 54 55 52 53 50 53 56 55 57 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 15 14 12 9 8 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 24 23 39 47 69 72 50 40 8 -7 -28 -23 -23 -14 -23 200 MB DIV 70 64 48 58 38 26 -29 17 -3 9 5 -4 10 68 -4 16 -14 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 0 0 -1 3 7 9 9 9 8 6 13 15 12 7 LAND (KM) 1651 1779 1854 1897 1908 1909 1947 2048 2160 2270 2204 2114 2026 2007 2087 2162 2043 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.2 17.0 18.3 19.6 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.9 34.1 34.8 35.2 35.3 35.3 35.6 36.4 37.7 39.2 40.8 42.3 43.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 5 2 2 2 6 8 10 9 9 7 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 26 22 20 19 18 17 26 20 21 24 12 12 11 23 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 20. 26. 33. 37. 39. 41. 40. 40. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -1. -5. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. -11. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 18. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. 21. 18. 19. 24. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 32.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 16.5% 11.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 17.9% 11.4% 3.9% 1.1% 5.0% 3.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 4.9% 0.2% Consensus: 3.4% 12.1% 8.3% 3.7% 0.4% 2.1% 6.7% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/18/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 38 43 48 49 50 49 49 46 43 44 49 53 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 40 45 46 47 46 46 43 40 41 46 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 35 40 41 42 41 41 38 35 36 41 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 32 33 32 32 29 26 27 32 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT