* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 18 23 27 30 31 39 35 36 31 26 20 12 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 3 2 0 -2 -1 1 4 7 4 6 3 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 356 346 324 308 306 287 287 278 267 278 272 266 280 276 282 262 289 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 139 137 138 144 148 146 148 150 149 149 149 145 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 48 46 45 42 43 44 49 56 59 56 51 47 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 17 0 -17 -21 -23 -52 -43 -51 -46 -45 -21 -19 -8 -10 -14 -27 200 MB DIV 55 42 22 9 3 -10 21 46 57 67 10 47 36 1 2 -15 -38 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -5 -6 -6 -1 0 0 4 3 8 7 3 -3 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1292 1255 1229 1208 1207 1072 941 836 785 784 742 735 763 844 903 959 985 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.2 46.2 47.3 48.3 49.9 51.3 52.5 53.5 54.3 54.9 55.3 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 32 35 34 47 54 47 36 42 53 58 56 57 55 48 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 42. 45. 48. 49. 47. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -12. -22. -34. -43. -47. -49. -49. -45. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -22. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -12. -12. -9. -4. 1. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 44.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 12.5% 8.3% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 8.1% 4.5% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.5% 4.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.7% 3.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/18/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT