* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP082023 08/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 37 37 35 33 31 31 31 32 34 36 38 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 37 37 35 33 31 31 31 32 34 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 37 37 35 32 29 28 28 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 12 13 14 17 19 24 26 24 25 28 32 36 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -8 -8 -4 1 -1 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 2 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 302 307 309 302 304 304 281 275 264 272 270 278 273 286 279 289 301 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 142 146 145 144 145 147 146 145 144 145 148 149 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 53 51 52 53 51 48 45 47 49 53 53 54 54 56 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -16 -13 -11 -11 -15 -18 -10 0 7 12 9 9 9 18 16 200 MB DIV 8 -4 0 -1 18 7 -1 4 16 28 10 18 0 0 -19 -10 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 992 1081 1156 1239 1281 1358 1428 1515 1611 1728 1863 1993 2125 2243 2393 2556 2731 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.7 162.0 163.1 164.2 165.2 167.1 168.4 169.8 171.1 172.4 173.7 175.0 176.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 8 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 15 18 27 37 40 49 60 67 32 16 14 16 21 27 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 26. 31. 36. 40. 43. 45. 45. 45. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -27. -26. -23. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 160.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.45 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 16.0% 13.2% 11.2% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 9.8% Logistic: 2.8% 7.1% 3.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.0% 5.6% 4.5% 0.7% 5.8% 0.4% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##