* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 132 131 128 111 89 63 31 34 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 129 132 131 128 111 89 57 38 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 129 130 127 121 98 71 44 32 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 4 3 12 13 15 29 37 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 1 6 5 5 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 237 196 169 152 169 209 175 156 170 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.3 30.3 29.7 29.0 26.7 23.7 22.2 19.2 13.5 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 169 169 162 156 132 102 88 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -49.5 -50.0 -49.9 -48.6 -49.1 -48.5 -48.6 -48.9 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 2 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 81 78 76 74 65 58 54 57 64 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 42 45 45 46 43 36 27 11 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 95 92 77 79 106 91 110 74 62 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 161 125 99 73 92 67 -9 46 88 110 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 10 9 3 3 6 5 -29 -13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 624 546 487 431 405 243 65 -2 -207 -552 -534 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.2 23.7 26.9 30.6 35.4 40.7 46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.8 112.5 113.0 113.5 114.2 115.0 116.0 117.0 117.3 117.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 14 18 21 26 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 16 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -11. -27. -44. -60. -60. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 4. 10. 16. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -17. -41. -49. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 6. 3. -14. -36. -62. -94. -91. -80. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.4 111.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.02 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 18.2% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 9.6% 3.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.5% 9.3% 5.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##