* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 35 40 44 49 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 35 40 44 49 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 18 17 16 16 17 19 22 25 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 23 24 28 24 25 23 23 15 10 11 10 7 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 2 -4 2 3 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 352 329 318 311 302 284 284 272 299 310 337 342 354 26 48 315 332 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 136 135 137 140 148 149 147 148 149 148 146 147 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 46 47 47 46 44 42 44 45 50 51 54 52 52 48 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -5 -17 -22 -35 -49 -56 -38 -63 -45 -62 -47 -47 -39 -44 -27 -33 200 MB DIV 36 15 22 5 -3 -4 27 55 43 7 13 9 -4 -1 -7 -19 11 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -8 -6 -4 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1234 1192 1182 1181 1190 1074 970 868 804 767 757 768 746 760 725 701 635 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.2 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.1 47.1 48.0 48.6 49.8 50.8 51.8 52.6 53.3 53.9 54.5 54.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 9 7 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 2 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 37 36 35 43 51 64 54 40 36 44 51 52 53 53 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 30. 37. 43. 46. 50. 50. 50. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -19. -27. -32. -31. -31. -30. -27. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 45.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 12.6% 8.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 11.7% 6.9% 3.7% 2.0% 4.5% 2.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 9.4% 5.4% 3.1% 0.7% 1.5% 3.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/18/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 35 40 44 49 54 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 24 24 25 25 26 26 28 33 38 42 47 52 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 20 21 21 22 22 24 29 34 38 43 48 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT