* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 45 46 47 46 44 42 41 42 45 52 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 45 46 47 46 44 42 41 42 45 52 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 40 41 40 39 37 36 36 37 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 4 3 7 8 14 16 22 25 32 31 34 24 16 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 6 5 3 0 0 3 3 2 1 0 3 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 139 228 260 169 160 225 216 251 264 300 286 293 304 309 297 315 319 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 122 122 123 128 124 124 125 126 127 128 134 131 131 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 60 58 56 57 56 54 52 54 53 55 57 58 61 60 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 16 16 17 14 11 10 8 7 6 7 8 8 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 34 30 50 74 78 62 48 15 11 -20 -24 -20 -15 -11 8 200 MB DIV 58 57 39 16 30 12 13 -5 4 10 -19 4 45 -4 33 19 19 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 4 6 6 5 8 8 7 12 11 12 8 2 LAND (KM) 1886 1972 2015 2015 2015 2039 2082 2178 2273 2266 2212 2146 2126 2202 2103 2012 2009 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.5 17.7 19.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 24.5 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.9 36.3 36.3 36.3 36.5 36.8 37.8 38.9 40.2 41.4 42.4 43.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 2 1 2 5 7 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 22 22 21 30 20 19 20 11 9 11 30 11 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 34. 35. 34. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -12. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -14. -19. -22. -24. -24. -22. -23. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 12. 15. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 35.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 15.5% 10.7% 8.2% 5.7% 10.1% 12.2% 14.3% Logistic: 4.9% 9.5% 6.6% 1.7% 0.3% 2.5% 3.3% 2.7% Bayesian: 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 3.4% 16.6% 0.5% Consensus: 3.7% 9.3% 6.8% 3.5% 2.1% 5.3% 10.7% 5.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/19/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 42 45 46 47 46 44 42 41 42 45 52 56 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 39 42 43 44 43 41 39 38 39 42 49 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 37 38 39 38 36 34 33 34 37 44 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 29 30 31 30 28 26 25 26 29 36 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT