* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 29 26 22 19 17 18 18 21 25 27 28 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 29 26 22 19 17 18 18 21 25 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 27 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 25 27 28 28 34 37 32 34 28 27 27 25 21 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 1 0 2 1 1 6 2 6 5 1 0 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 315 306 303 295 284 282 261 272 272 280 274 292 304 327 316 333 335 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 138 140 141 143 143 146 147 147 147 149 146 142 140 135 140 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 42 44 47 48 48 44 47 48 50 55 59 57 51 47 51 54 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -9 -14 -22 -27 -53 -46 -58 -54 -46 -18 -22 0 7 6 -20 -22 200 MB DIV 19 19 23 3 -2 16 36 55 70 14 33 25 30 14 29 0 22 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -4 -5 -1 1 0 2 5 4 3 0 -2 0 0 5 4 LAND (KM) 1240 1226 1162 1095 1026 924 856 815 800 786 795 823 927 1016 1154 1303 1451 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.9 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.9 52.9 53.8 54.3 54.6 54.8 54.8 54.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 40 49 48 40 34 37 48 56 59 59 54 41 35 29 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 26. 32. 36. 39. 41. 41. 40. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -17. -26. -36. -43. -45. -46. -46. -44. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -12. -12. -9. -5. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 46.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 10.0% 6.8% 4.3% 4.1% 6.4% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/19/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 30 29 29 26 22 19 17 18 18 21 25 27 28 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 24 20 17 15 16 16 19 23 25 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT