* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 110 104 84 61 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 110 104 84 55 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 100 90 66 43 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 8 12 12 19 31 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 6 5 3 6 16 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 195 205 172 168 191 173 184 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 29.7 29.1 27.4 26.7 22.9 21.4 18.8 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 163 157 139 133 95 80 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -49.1 -49.3 -48.6 -48.4 -48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 71 64 54 52 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 41 41 39 31 21 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 75 69 92 96 88 105 75 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 122 98 121 104 96 -5 26 85 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 8 9 4 -1 -6 16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 481 420 390 305 240 62 -14 -303 -546 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.3 21.3 22.6 23.9 27.3 31.6 36.6 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.9 113.4 113.9 114.3 115.3 116.5 117.4 117.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 16 20 23 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 16 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. -1. -3. -15. -33. -49. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 1. -5. -15. -37. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -11. -31. -54. -80. -69. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.2 112.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 12.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##