* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 42 42 39 35 33 34 37 40 42 45 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 42 42 39 35 33 34 37 40 42 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 40 39 38 35 32 29 28 29 29 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 2 3 4 12 20 27 36 33 35 28 20 15 11 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 10 11 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -2 2 -4 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 65 303 357 227 206 217 227 245 283 286 295 304 339 319 294 323 341 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 123 123 123 128 124 123 125 126 127 132 134 132 134 125 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 58 57 56 54 53 55 56 59 57 54 53 51 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 18 18 15 13 11 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 36 44 47 82 60 40 11 -9 -33 -19 -34 -18 -6 -5 -32 200 MB DIV 44 31 31 25 23 20 -14 4 3 0 -2 56 -6 13 0 6 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 2 5 8 11 8 8 2 7 7 10 11 7 6 LAND (KM) 1908 1961 1972 1984 1997 2065 2129 2247 2316 2253 2180 2135 2152 1932 1722 1590 1509 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 18.0 19.6 21.4 23.0 24.5 25.7 27.0 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.3 35.8 35.9 36.0 36.1 36.6 37.4 38.7 40.1 41.3 42.5 43.6 44.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 6 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 19 30 19 16 16 8 9 23 15 7 6 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -20. -18. -18. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 9. 6. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 35.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 15.0% 10.4% 8.0% 5.5% 9.9% 11.6% 12.8% Logistic: 5.1% 8.6% 4.9% 1.0% 0.2% 2.0% 3.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 3.2% 4.4% 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.7% 4.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 9.3% 6.0% 3.1% 2.0% 4.8% 6.3% 4.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/19/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 37 40 42 42 39 35 33 34 37 40 42 45 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 37 39 39 36 32 30 31 34 37 39 42 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 34 34 31 27 25 26 29 32 34 37 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 27 27 24 20 18 19 22 25 27 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT