* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 08/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 47 52 58 62 64 64 64 64 64 64 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 47 52 58 62 64 51 50 50 50 50 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 37 40 44 48 51 44 44 46 48 50 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 11 9 10 12 10 11 14 17 12 21 12 13 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 0 6 0 0 1 2 1 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 294 301 268 278 295 259 278 248 274 237 266 249 313 330 333 312 287 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 149 149 156 159 158 160 159 154 153 156 156 154 158 159 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 9 8 9 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 63 62 64 67 65 66 65 65 66 66 69 71 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 74 70 66 56 62 62 64 45 63 28 30 2 17 0 7 -3 200 MB DIV 40 44 71 67 47 74 51 85 85 100 72 78 65 62 58 75 39 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 5 5 3 3 8 5 4 1 LAND (KM) 140 102 49 145 263 391 371 325 243 106 -49 68 159 239 280 344 428 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.6 15.3 16.1 17.4 19.0 20.3 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 60.1 61.3 62.6 63.7 65.6 67.4 68.5 69.3 69.7 70.1 70.1 69.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 7 8 5 4 5 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 33 24 28 47 58 74 87 76 59 69 76 72 72 72 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 32. 39. 45. 49. 53. 54. 52. 51. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 27. 33. 37. 39. 39. 39. 39. 39. 39. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 58.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 08/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 34.0% 17.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 15.4% 51.1% 39.7% 13.4% 4.7% 11.9% 10.9% 8.6% Bayesian: 5.3% 20.9% 14.1% 3.0% 1.4% 4.0% 3.8% 8.0% Consensus: 8.6% 35.3% 23.9% 8.3% 2.0% 5.3% 11.0% 5.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 08/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 08/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 37 40 47 52 58 62 64 51 50 50 50 50 53 53 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 35 42 47 53 57 59 46 45 45 45 45 48 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 35 40 46 50 52 39 38 38 38 38 41 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 30 36 40 42 29 28 28 28 28 31 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT