* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 33 35 34 33 29 26 26 28 29 35 40 44 52 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 33 35 34 33 29 26 26 28 29 35 40 44 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 30 27 24 22 20 19 19 21 23 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 7 11 22 27 37 32 38 30 21 16 12 13 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 9 10 6 0 -1 0 2 -2 0 0 0 -6 -6 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 236 222 213 212 213 243 269 286 269 291 283 299 280 288 258 264 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 125 128 125 123 125 126 127 133 137 135 138 137 127 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 61 57 56 56 54 54 49 51 53 55 57 57 60 57 58 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 17 14 12 10 9 10 11 11 14 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 30 40 37 43 68 70 37 16 -8 -24 -28 -31 -23 0 50 28 -5 200 MB DIV 32 33 40 24 16 8 -9 7 -4 -2 9 16 31 36 53 33 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 4 9 7 13 9 9 4 8 12 8 12 14 7 7 LAND (KM) 1930 1963 1986 2012 2062 2134 2250 2293 2218 2149 2086 2098 1895 1682 1459 1222 985 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.8 19.3 20.9 22.5 24.0 25.4 26.9 28.7 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.5 35.8 36.0 36.2 36.6 37.4 38.7 40.1 41.5 42.7 44.1 45.1 45.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 21 29 21 18 17 8 9 20 13 8 9 8 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 29. 29. 27. 26. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -8. -14. -19. -19. -19. -17. -15. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. -14. -11. -11. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. -1. -4. -4. -2. -1. 5. 10. 14. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 35.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 13.3% 9.2% 7.4% 4.9% 8.8% 8.8% 9.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.6% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 32 33 35 34 33 29 26 26 28 29 35 40 44 52 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 32 34 33 32 28 25 25 27 28 34 39 43 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 30 29 25 22 22 24 25 31 36 40 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT