* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 32 30 36 36 30 33 31 27 21 21 13 9 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -3 0 0 5 8 4 -1 -5 -7 -6 -3 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 302 292 283 283 284 270 270 267 288 293 325 331 343 334 2 79 54 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 141 144 145 144 146 146 148 147 147 146 147 147 148 148 150 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 43 44 42 42 42 44 45 50 54 57 54 54 55 56 54 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -27 -32 -39 -42 -48 -55 -41 -33 -16 -26 -37 -49 -36 -33 -19 -32 200 MB DIV 10 -4 -4 12 16 26 53 62 -2 11 4 8 -5 3 -33 -16 -36 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 -1 0 0 -1 5 1 -2 0 -4 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1188 1102 1035 961 909 826 801 799 772 767 769 795 784 724 649 609 592 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.0 18.7 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.8 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.0 53.1 53.8 54.2 54.5 54.6 54.6 54.3 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 3 3 4 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 50 47 44 41 36 37 42 46 50 51 45 40 38 39 41 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 25. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -20. -30. -40. -47. -48. -49. -48. -43. -41. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -17. -14. -10. -4. 2. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 48.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.1% 4.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 28 27 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 27 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT