* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 96 85 70 47 39 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 103 96 85 70 44 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 103 91 78 64 40 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 16 17 28 38 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 10 5 5 10 12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 198 167 166 179 167 184 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 27.3 26.8 24.3 21.6 19.6 13.8 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 139 135 109 82 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.5 -49.0 -49.4 -49.5 -48.0 -48.5 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 62 58 52 54 63 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 40 40 36 31 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 78 92 104 84 87 55 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 87 92 56 33 36 97 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 0 5 0 -23 30 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 368 262 215 81 66 -72 -475 -520 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 23.1 24.6 26.5 28.4 33.5 39.7 45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.2 116.7 117.6 117.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 19 23 28 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -12. -27. -35. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. 4. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -28. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -25. -40. -63. -71. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.5 113.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##