* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 33 30 27 25 22 19 21 25 29 32 35 36 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 33 30 27 25 22 19 21 25 29 32 35 36 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 30 27 24 21 18 17 16 16 17 18 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 12 17 22 32 32 39 32 33 16 14 14 10 15 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 10 7 2 0 -1 -6 -2 -2 4 -2 -6 -1 2 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 228 227 229 225 221 238 253 280 265 280 277 262 208 239 224 255 279 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.1 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.6 27.2 26.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 125 122 126 127 129 127 129 141 144 149 146 127 116 110 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 53 55 54 52 48 47 51 53 56 58 58 60 67 59 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 20 21 16 13 12 10 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 57 80 99 62 37 8 -4 -26 -15 -36 -28 -9 -4 -11 -28 200 MB DIV 27 48 16 15 30 -10 20 5 17 -8 31 0 8 42 58 4 6 700-850 TADV -1 0 7 15 11 12 12 3 6 2 5 11 13 16 12 17 20 LAND (KM) 2012 2071 2130 2183 2199 2203 2167 2097 2014 1957 1944 1950 1700 1449 1190 1008 904 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.6 22.0 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.8 29.7 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.2 36.7 37.2 37.9 38.5 39.8 41.2 42.5 43.8 45.1 46.3 47.3 48.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 30 33 22 18 27 23 11 9 17 20 13 15 12 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 27. 27. 26. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -14. -21. -23. -22. -21. -18. -16. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -9. -5. -1. 2. 5. 6. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 36.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 10.2% 7.0% 6.1% 3.2% 6.4% 5.2% 6.1% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.7% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 08/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 32 33 30 27 25 22 19 21 25 29 32 35 36 40 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 32 29 26 24 21 18 20 24 28 31 34 35 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 26 23 21 18 15 17 21 25 28 31 32 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT