* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 08/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 33 34 36 43 33 33 33 35 33 29 24 23 21 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -4 -1 2 8 6 2 -8 -8 -4 -3 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 293 286 286 288 283 272 270 281 293 320 346 3 5 20 19 17 46 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 138 138 138 138 138 139 140 141 141 142 144 143 143 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 39 41 43 45 49 51 54 52 56 54 59 58 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -36 -44 -55 -53 -53 -55 -43 -40 -30 -40 -45 -47 -45 -51 -55 -66 200 MB DIV -12 -2 8 -3 17 36 47 16 8 -43 -2 9 -9 -10 14 -33 11 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 0 -1 1 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1092 1010 938 877 829 748 730 694 663 642 650 623 556 476 412 389 408 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.2 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 50.9 51.7 52.4 53.0 54.1 54.7 55.2 55.5 55.7 55.6 55.4 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 2 5 5 5 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 40 36 33 32 33 40 46 51 54 52 42 35 37 39 39 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. 43. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -12. -23. -34. -45. -55. -58. -60. -60. -58. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -26. -25. -22. -18. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 49.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 08/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.16 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 4.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 08/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 08/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT