* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 37 34 31 25 22 22 22 32 34 39 42 52 55 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 37 34 31 25 22 22 22 32 34 39 42 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 35 31 27 23 21 19 19 21 23 26 29 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 24 27 31 34 40 33 31 16 15 10 9 10 12 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 4 2 5 -3 -4 -1 2 6 0 -6 -4 -2 5 7 11 SHEAR DIR 218 224 219 220 230 249 273 283 264 283 260 203 190 240 229 186 235 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.8 28.7 29.0 27.3 25.8 18.6 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 124 123 128 127 128 127 131 135 149 148 153 131 116 80 78 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 49 49 45 46 48 54 56 55 60 63 60 45 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 15 13 10 10 11 10 14 13 16 17 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 57 60 74 87 87 46 30 15 0 -11 -37 -39 8 37 29 9 -8 200 MB DIV 44 17 -1 23 19 0 3 19 2 -6 16 2 25 73 25 27 26 700-850 TADV 1 9 18 17 18 11 4 5 2 4 9 8 11 6 25 -12 -2 LAND (KM) 2057 2116 2198 2259 2238 2129 2029 1912 1855 1812 1836 1814 1542 1205 816 534 783 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.9 25.3 26.7 28.5 30.6 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.2 38.1 39.0 39.9 41.6 43.1 44.6 45.8 47.1 48.2 49.2 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 12 14 18 22 26 30 HEAT CONTENT 30 24 17 19 31 22 12 11 27 16 20 15 16 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 22. 19. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -21. -25. -26. -24. -22. -19. -16. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -14. -14. -17. -13. -14. -10. -10. -5. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -4. -10. -13. -13. -13. -3. -1. 4. 7. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 36.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 8.9% 6.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.3% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 08/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/20/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 37 34 31 25 22 22 22 32 34 39 42 52 55 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 32 29 23 20 20 20 30 32 37 40 50 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 29 26 20 17 17 17 27 29 34 37 47 50 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT