* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 08/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 50 55 58 59 59 60 61 67 72 77 75 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 50 55 43 45 45 46 47 53 59 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 45 37 39 41 44 47 52 59 67 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 10 11 16 12 12 13 13 9 14 11 17 12 16 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 2 3 0 1 4 7 5 2 8 9 7 1 -1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 273 299 302 292 286 255 251 228 257 236 287 294 290 254 276 199 265 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 161 160 160 159 157 159 160 157 152 157 158 154 149 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.2 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 10 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 66 69 67 67 69 69 68 68 71 70 72 68 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 14 16 15 17 17 17 18 18 20 23 27 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 50 51 54 61 77 79 56 32 32 26 7 28 40 51 7 200 MB DIV 78 68 81 74 52 76 89 142 73 66 73 47 43 101 68 66 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 3 1 5 0 12 13 15 19 20 18 14 -2 9 2 LAND (KM) 176 305 364 402 371 292 219 69 -74 150 322 506 527 615 735 974 1351 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.6 15.6 16.3 17.6 19.1 21.1 22.3 23.2 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.1 65.2 66.2 67.1 68.7 69.8 70.5 70.7 70.2 68.7 66.6 64.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 6 7 9 10 10 11 9 7 7 14 20 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 42 53 60 77 83 59 55 65 61 63 51 44 34 34 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 39. 42. 45. 45. 43. 41. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 9. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. 37. 42. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 62.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 31.1% 15.7% 9.8% 7.7% 12.2% 14.3% 17.3% Logistic: 8.1% 40.4% 22.5% 10.0% 5.8% 14.3% 9.0% 11.6% Bayesian: 2.3% 13.8% 3.9% 2.0% 0.5% 3.9% 1.5% 3.1% Consensus: 5.2% 28.4% 14.0% 7.3% 4.7% 10.1% 8.3% 10.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 08/20/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 47 50 55 43 45 45 46 47 53 59 64 61 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 46 51 39 41 41 42 43 49 55 60 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 40 45 33 35 35 36 37 43 49 54 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 31 36 24 26 26 27 28 34 40 45 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT