* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 44 42 37 32 27 27 27 30 28 32 31 31 34 41 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 44 42 37 32 27 27 27 30 28 32 31 31 34 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 46 43 37 32 28 26 25 24 25 27 28 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 23 32 32 33 35 38 34 18 12 4 8 15 17 21 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 2 -1 0 -4 1 3 1 0 1 3 4 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 220 222 225 242 254 262 285 278 293 257 188 226 233 242 277 307 346 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.0 24.7 19.2 19.0 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 127 128 132 134 134 141 148 147 143 127 106 80 81 75 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 46 45 46 46 48 53 58 60 62 65 59 52 50 49 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 18 16 14 12 11 12 11 11 8 11 10 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 84 98 87 66 56 33 16 2 -4 -28 -30 3 22 -26 -72 -98 -118 200 MB DIV 16 34 3 -16 4 10 5 16 39 -10 4 36 60 38 31 26 0 700-850 TADV 19 18 16 8 10 4 4 1 4 12 4 19 28 45 55 70 59 LAND (KM) 2197 2188 2189 2162 2116 2048 1944 1888 1883 1948 1757 1430 1071 752 639 932 1438 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.6 23.7 25.2 26.9 29.0 31.3 34.2 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.3 40.0 40.8 41.5 42.8 44.2 45.4 46.4 47.2 48.2 48.8 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 12 14 16 18 19 21 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 29 29 26 16 15 21 22 15 14 11 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 6. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -20. -22. -20. -17. -15. -12. -9. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -18. -19. -25. -21. -23. -25. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -18. -18. -15. -17. -13. -14. -14. -11. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 38.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.9% 5.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 44 42 37 32 27 27 27 30 28 32 31 31 34 41 18HR AGO 45 44 44 42 40 35 30 25 25 25 28 26 30 29 29 32 39 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 32 27 22 22 22 25 23 27 26 26 29 36 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 23 18 18 18 21 19 23 22 22 25 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT