* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 08/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 42 48 57 61 65 69 70 71 73 73 79 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 42 48 57 61 43 43 44 45 47 47 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 36 39 42 46 36 37 42 46 51 56 63 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 14 18 17 13 11 10 10 4 14 13 22 14 19 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 4 7 12 7 3 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 287 279 287 297 259 278 276 321 265 338 344 349 322 326 318 286 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.2 29.5 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 161 156 154 150 153 159 162 155 161 153 151 146 149 153 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 64 66 67 71 73 72 70 71 66 70 73 76 74 75 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 16 16 16 17 18 20 23 25 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 52 50 65 64 63 77 86 96 58 49 4 0 -4 36 34 37 28 200 MB DIV 58 56 58 50 56 85 110 105 78 96 72 66 31 95 43 34 38 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 5 8 10 9 14 10 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 382 395 332 264 256 239 266 236 81 -78 53 211 197 229 344 570 842 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.7 17.3 19.0 20.0 20.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 66.6 67.9 69.1 70.1 71.4 72.2 72.3 72.1 71.2 69.6 67.4 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 9 5 3 6 10 9 10 11 10 9 9 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 56 60 78 95 87 65 85 62 54 65 84 57 44 40 42 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 29. 36. 41. 45. 48. 49. 47. 46. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 0. 4. 6. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 18. 27. 31. 35. 39. 40. 41. 43. 43. 49. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 65.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 16.8% 11.2% 8.4% 5.8% 10.9% 13.2% 21.9% Logistic: 5.1% 12.4% 7.5% 2.9% 0.7% 2.8% 4.7% 5.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 5.0% 4.7% Consensus: 3.4% 10.1% 6.8% 4.1% 2.4% 5.0% 7.6% 10.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 08/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 39 42 48 57 61 43 43 44 45 47 47 53 55 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 38 44 53 57 39 39 40 41 43 43 49 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 39 48 52 34 34 35 36 38 38 44 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 31 40 44 26 26 27 28 30 30 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT