* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 08/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 28 38 49 49 44 41 37 39 37 37 36 34 34 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 28 38 49 34 29 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 30 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 15 12 10 14 16 17 9 21 19 21 21 27 28 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -2 3 -4 -1 -1 2 0 3 -1 -1 4 5 -3 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 271 235 221 236 239 211 118 165 145 183 196 208 241 259 289 293 315 SST (C) 31.6 31.9 31.2 31.2 31.4 31.4 29.8 28.9 29.0 29.7 29.1 29.2 30.1 30.9 31.3 31.2 31.7 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 173 173 174 174 168 153 155 166 154 155 170 171 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 11 7 10 7 9 2 6 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 57 60 64 61 66 62 60 59 54 51 50 51 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 11 13 9 5 4 2 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 10 16 0 7 12 5 18 -6 -16 -21 -15 -28 -31 -9 -58 -64 200 MB DIV -5 13 0 -15 -21 24 3 67 -19 3 6 11 -3 6 -1 2 -17 700-850 TADV -1 2 -4 -8 -6 -5 -7 10 3 3 -2 -2 4 9 45 50 75 LAND (KM) 122 190 283 323 361 432 56 -271 -622 -595 -655 -823 -971 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.2 25.9 27.1 29.0 31.7 34.4 36.6 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.7 86.1 87.7 89.4 92.9 96.6 100.2 103.6 106.2 107.2 107.0 106.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 18 16 13 9 7 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 75 108 165 53 48 71 35 4 4 23 18 18 40 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -4. -2. 4. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. 16. 11. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 2. -4. -6. -11. -9. -12. -12. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 18. 29. 29. 24. 21. 17. 19. 17. 17. 16. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.1 83.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 08/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 89.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 152.9 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 24.8% 13.6% 3.4% 1.7% 11.1% 23.6% 20.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 8.7% 4.6% 1.1% 0.6% 3.7% 7.9% 6.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 08/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 08/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 28 38 49 34 29 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 26 36 47 32 27 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 22 32 43 28 23 21 21 21 22 23 23 24 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT