* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 42 39 34 28 20 19 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 42 39 34 28 20 19 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 46 43 40 35 31 27 24 22 20 20 21 21 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 31 33 32 32 43 40 43 18 11 9 14 29 19 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 1 0 1 -8 0 0 6 2 -5 -4 2 5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 231 245 254 257 286 284 292 272 243 186 202 204 253 292 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.9 27.6 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.0 27.8 27.0 24.9 18.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 128 129 136 131 134 143 151 153 136 129 112 82 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 46 45 43 41 45 51 57 60 64 65 51 43 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 16 14 13 11 10 12 10 9 6 8 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 86 70 60 57 34 22 7 -7 -42 3 37 23 -22 -61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 3 -8 0 15 -3 3 26 29 -20 12 24 60 27 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 18 11 10 7 2 5 0 7 7 2 14 25 24 57 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2208 2183 2159 2091 2021 1849 1684 1575 1603 1723 1719 1374 985 745 1130 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.3 22.1 23.2 24.4 26.3 28.6 31.3 34.4 38.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.8 40.7 41.5 42.4 44.7 46.7 48.4 49.3 49.8 50.5 50.8 50.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 10 11 10 10 11 13 15 16 23 34 37 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 27 29 26 25 18 11 16 20 20 15 8 5 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 7. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -22. -26. -28. -27. -24. -22. -19. -15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -17. -21. -25. -30. -28. -27. -29. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -24. -26. -28. -28. -30. -28. -26. -22. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.0 39.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 9.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 42 39 34 28 20 19 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 41 38 33 27 19 18 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 36 31 25 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT