* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 08/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 44 45 48 53 58 58 62 67 69 71 72 73 78 83 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 44 45 48 53 58 58 51 37 42 44 45 46 51 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 45 45 46 48 52 56 55 36 42 48 52 58 66 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 26 24 17 12 7 10 6 9 9 15 13 18 15 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -1 -1 1 4 -1 2 3 10 6 3 0 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 286 269 279 282 277 266 296 291 320 316 6 345 347 323 341 6 54 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.5 28.3 28.7 29.1 30.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.7 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 158 155 154 142 137 145 153 171 157 159 155 152 147 154 152 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 66 67 74 74 75 74 71 66 70 75 75 73 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 12 13 15 16 13 14 17 18 20 22 25 27 32 850 MB ENV VOR 51 62 59 57 61 86 103 92 76 50 26 -3 13 43 58 53 37 200 MB DIV 56 41 30 25 74 80 125 87 83 76 51 55 97 79 67 5 40 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -2 0 -2 3 0 4 5 8 4 10 5 2 -5 0 LAND (KM) 395 348 304 286 271 302 338 248 84 -3 -22 120 134 155 364 599 839 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.8 17.4 18.7 19.5 19.7 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.6 68.2 69.6 70.8 71.8 73.1 73.7 73.8 73.4 72.3 70.4 67.9 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 11 8 5 2 6 9 8 11 12 13 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 56 68 97 104 86 41 41 66 66 66 58 85 65 44 44 50 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 25. 30. 35. 38. 41. 41. 39. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -6. -6. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 13. 18. 18. 22. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 38. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.4 66.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.51 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 18.0% 12.2% 9.4% 6.7% 11.3% 14.0% 26.2% Logistic: 7.1% 14.2% 10.6% 7.2% 1.7% 5.3% 2.8% 6.3% Bayesian: 2.6% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% 4.4% Consensus: 5.1% 12.1% 8.5% 6.0% 3.3% 6.0% 5.8% 12.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 08/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 08/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 44 45 48 53 58 58 51 37 42 44 45 46 51 56 18HR AGO 40 39 41 41 42 45 50 55 55 48 34 39 41 42 43 48 53 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 40 45 50 50 43 29 34 36 37 38 43 48 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 39 44 44 37 23 28 30 31 32 37 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT