* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 08/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 32 42 49 46 42 37 32 33 32 32 30 29 31 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 32 42 37 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 12 8 5 23 13 16 18 19 19 20 24 22 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 2 -4 -2 1 1 2 2 -2 2 0 8 0 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 239 228 239 238 207 171 135 140 157 176 199 210 252 267 287 299 305 SST (C) 31.9 31.3 31.3 31.5 31.4 31.1 29.8 28.7 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.7 30.7 31.3 31.1 31.3 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 174 174 174 174 169 150 161 160 152 163 171 171 172 171 70 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 9 10 8 9 7 9 5 5 3 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 58 60 61 62 63 61 60 57 51 53 51 50 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 10 13 12 7 4 3 2 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 -1 11 6 9 3 21 -13 -12 -18 -9 -29 -14 -45 -72 -63 200 MB DIV 14 2 -15 -21 19 12 21 23 -29 17 0 8 4 20 -4 -5 -19 700-850 TADV 1 -6 -10 -6 -2 -23 16 -6 12 -2 -1 -14 12 30 41 105 51 LAND (KM) 216 309 367 406 418 205 -154 -520 -568 -587 -716 -886 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.9 26.9 28.4 30.8 33.4 35.8 37.5 39.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.6 86.0 87.7 89.5 91.3 95.1 99.0 102.6 105.7 107.4 107.7 107.2 107.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 16 17 18 18 18 17 14 11 7 8 10 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 80 154 59 49 56 79 5 12 10 19 10 29 6 7 6 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -2. 5. 11. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 17. 13. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 22. 29. 26. 22. 17. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.6 84.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 08/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 153.4 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 34.0% 22.0% 8.3% 4.1% 17.1% 24.7% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.3% 12.0% 7.6% 2.8% 1.4% 5.7% 8.2% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 08/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 08/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 32 42 37 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 29 39 34 27 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 24 34 29 22 20 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT