* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 48 52 58 63 65 68 68 69 71 72 79 84 78 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 47 48 52 47 43 45 48 48 50 52 53 59 65 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 46 47 48 43 39 42 45 48 51 54 58 67 77 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 13 11 10 18 14 12 18 21 24 21 13 13 11 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 1 3 4 0 0 2 7 7 2 0 -6 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 267 267 252 221 251 222 256 243 286 270 275 241 240 184 149 180 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 154 152 153 154 166 153 157 159 167 162 161 158 159 160 153 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -51.4 -50.6 -49.9 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 69 68 69 66 65 67 69 65 62 62 64 68 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 12 14 15 15 17 18 21 25 27 32 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 63 57 58 64 69 80 78 43 44 19 40 38 71 73 76 77 105 200 MB DIV 61 42 43 89 96 70 102 94 88 62 44 5 102 47 101 72 100 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 2 8 14 14 16 12 15 8 3 6 -1 7 LAND (KM) 354 340 280 240 216 131 -32 32 254 449 632 733 785 849 940 1128 1089 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.7 16.5 18.3 20.2 22.1 23.5 24.5 25.3 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.8 68.9 70.0 70.6 71.3 71.7 71.4 71.0 70.2 68.6 66.6 65.3 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 8 6 5 6 10 10 10 10 9 5 3 4 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 66 83 96 94 92 71 56 54 64 54 73 46 38 29 26 22 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 33. 33. 30. 27. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. 1. 1. 5. 9. 10. 17. 22. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 12. 18. 23. 25. 28. 28. 29. 31. 32. 39. 44. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 67.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.53 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 24.6% 13.4% 9.6% 7.2% 11.8% 15.4% 27.7% Logistic: 6.4% 14.9% 10.5% 5.7% 1.2% 3.5% 2.6% 3.5% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 1.4% 3.3% 1.2% Consensus: 5.2% 13.4% 8.5% 5.3% 2.9% 5.6% 7.1% 10.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 47 48 52 47 43 45 48 48 50 52 53 59 65 58 18HR AGO 40 39 42 43 44 48 43 39 41 44 44 46 48 49 55 61 54 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 42 37 33 35 38 38 40 42 43 49 55 48 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 30 26 28 31 31 33 35 36 42 48 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT