* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 35 43 51 60 71 79 84 85 85 85 90 96 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 28 35 43 51 60 71 79 84 85 85 85 90 96 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 43 53 61 67 71 72 73 78 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 11 11 7 1 9 13 8 11 14 15 12 9 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -2 3 6 0 3 1 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 82 85 70 70 59 66 250 282 263 278 247 250 244 266 277 320 326 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 142 143 141 137 138 138 134 134 133 133 132 135 132 135 138 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 75 74 72 69 65 67 63 65 67 63 62 53 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 13 14 15 17 21 24 25 25 25 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 32 31 23 20 21 13 28 31 30 29 3 -1 -21 -29 -39 200 MB DIV 39 46 43 25 16 -3 1 -27 20 79 66 30 -3 -16 -19 -13 -17 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -1 0 0 -1 5 1 1 1 6 2 5 7 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 716 867 996 1126 1233 1459 1673 1909 2067 1974 1937 1926 1905 1851 1768 1685 1635 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.6 26.8 28.0 29.0 31.1 33.1 35.3 37.3 39.1 40.6 42.0 43.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 18 22 17 13 21 23 26 24 31 26 38 20 12 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 23. 31. 39. 45. 48. 51. 52. 52. 52. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 31. 40. 51. 59. 64. 65. 65. 65. 70. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.8 24.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 13.5% 6.6% 3.0% 1.7% 9.5% 16.7% 42.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 16.7% Consensus: 1.2% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.6% 3.4% 5.8% 19.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 26 28 35 43 51 60 71 79 84 85 85 85 90 96 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 26 33 41 49 58 69 77 82 83 83 83 88 94 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 35 43 52 63 71 76 77 77 77 82 88 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT