* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 52 53 59 61 62 63 63 62 63 64 70 72 76 70 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 52 53 59 43 46 48 47 46 48 48 55 56 60 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 53 41 43 45 47 50 53 56 61 69 74 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 14 14 14 19 12 17 18 32 24 25 19 16 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 7 6 2 0 2 4 2 1 -3 -6 -7 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 271 278 249 233 238 242 248 259 257 259 275 263 250 222 206 151 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.8 29.5 29.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 153 152 153 158 158 155 157 163 163 163 158 163 159 163 144 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 67 68 67 66 67 66 67 66 63 58 59 61 70 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 11 11 14 13 13 15 15 17 21 24 29 31 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 63 71 66 76 60 34 17 15 8 32 50 51 41 63 83 200 MB DIV 39 45 86 91 76 98 71 74 67 71 39 80 35 39 28 69 111 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 0 8 18 21 12 14 8 6 3 3 -3 -2 1 LAND (KM) 342 340 285 251 222 49 -52 152 393 563 687 772 931 1020 1094 1204 1060 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.7 17.3 19.3 21.1 23.0 24.1 24.8 25.7 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.4 70.1 70.5 70.9 71.1 70.7 70.1 68.7 67.3 65.8 64.5 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 5 9 10 11 10 8 7 7 6 4 6 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 78 93 97 95 92 57 54 63 57 70 57 39 27 27 22 23 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 27. 24. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 3. 6. 13. 15. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. 19. 25. 27. 31. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 68.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 91.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.56 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 38.3% 23.5% 14.4% 10.8% 16.5% 16.0% 18.5% Logistic: 9.7% 14.6% 10.9% 6.7% 1.5% 4.3% 2.3% 2.1% Bayesian: 3.6% 3.1% 6.0% 3.1% 1.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% Consensus: 7.0% 18.7% 13.5% 8.0% 4.6% 8.0% 6.5% 7.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 52 53 59 43 46 48 47 46 48 48 55 56 60 54 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 49 55 39 42 44 43 42 44 44 51 52 56 50 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 49 33 36 38 37 36 38 38 45 46 50 44 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 42 26 29 31 30 29 31 31 38 39 43 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT