* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 08/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 43 41 39 35 35 33 34 31 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 37 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 2 17 9 16 16 19 15 19 27 24 34 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 -1 0 1 1 4 2 0 0 0 7 0 1 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 240 246 221 225 285 131 129 147 176 192 206 257 263 298 307 323 332 SST (C) 31.2 31.6 31.4 31.4 31.3 29.5 28.9 29.5 29.4 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.3 31.3 30.9 33.1 32.0 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 174 174 174 163 153 163 160 152 167 170 170 170 170 170 170 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 10 6 7 3 3 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 63 60 62 61 59 57 57 52 54 52 51 47 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 13 14 13 8 5 3 2 3 2 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 19 7 11 10 8 22 -15 -16 -20 -4 -45 -14 -26 -49 -66 -58 200 MB DIV -7 -16 22 32 26 32 21 -5 5 13 9 -14 16 -32 -6 -25 -41 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -2 -7 -20 12 -4 14 -7 -2 -13 10 33 23 49 30 37 LAND (KM) 342 372 435 444 297 -46 -415 -614 -644 -762 -957 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.6 26.6 28.0 30.4 33.3 35.8 37.8 39.1 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.9 90.6 92.4 94.2 97.9 101.6 104.8 106.7 107.0 106.4 105.9 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 15 12 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 79 48 53 66 70 29 4 10 19 10 33 6 7 7 6 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 5. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 11. 7. 0. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -3. -8. -12. -15. -15. -17. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 18. 16. 14. 10. 10. 8. 9. 6. 5. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.7 87.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 08/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.5 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 23.7% 12.4% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 28.6% 18.8% 6.5% 2.3% 10.9% 11.5% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 3.1% 18.3% 10.8% 4.8% 0.8% 3.7% 8.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 08/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 08/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 37 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 34 27 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 28 21 19 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT