* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 50 50 53 57 58 60 66 67 66 69 68 71 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 50 41 44 48 49 51 57 58 57 60 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 34 39 41 43 45 49 50 53 57 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 12 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 23 24 20 15 22 16 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 8 7 6 0 1 1 5 7 4 4 -3 -1 -4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 281 250 232 242 278 235 261 245 259 249 266 235 219 181 140 179 186 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 152 152 162 157 155 156 165 163 162 158 159 158 153 146 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 66 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 63 63 60 60 58 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 12 13 12 14 12 13 14 15 17 22 23 24 27 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 50 67 72 65 67 76 43 24 14 18 24 63 67 73 72 96 55 200 MB DIV 45 77 83 67 77 75 71 67 72 67 41 68 32 18 32 25 39 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -1 5 10 18 12 13 8 6 6 10 12 -6 10 9 LAND (KM) 326 312 292 243 196 26 15 239 424 587 688 772 863 994 1173 1097 996 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.5 15.9 17.8 19.9 21.8 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.1 70.7 70.9 71.1 71.0 70.5 69.6 68.2 66.7 65.2 64.2 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 7 10 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 97 101 103 97 85 54 58 64 59 74 53 40 30 24 21 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. 23. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -7. -7. -6. -7. -5. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 5. 8. 12. 13. 15. 21. 22. 21. 24. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 69.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 96.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.60 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 23.3% 12.8% 10.0% 8.0% 12.0% 13.6% 15.9% Logistic: 5.3% 6.8% 3.7% 2.8% 0.9% 4.2% 3.0% 2.9% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 4.6% 10.5% 6.0% 4.4% 3.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 46 50 41 44 48 49 51 57 58 57 60 59 61 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 48 39 42 46 47 49 55 56 55 58 57 59 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 45 36 39 43 44 46 52 53 52 55 54 56 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 39 30 33 37 38 40 46 47 46 49 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT